Here’s The Challenge

April - Oct 2021

Here’s the challenge: Humanity as one, completely withdraw from a carbon future by making the necessary choices and changes to thrive within earth’s various limitations while juggling all the expectations and demands of acquisitive societies and the uncertainties they generate. A tall order and one we need to achieve much sooner rather than later.

The transition away from carbon will not be a smooth, uneventful journey. There will be many hurdles to deal with along the way. The growing body of evidence is compelling, indeed it has been for some time and should be provocative in context, but our inactions belie the necessity of getting it together to alter our ways of doing. We have been tardy so far.

While allowing a temperature rise of 2ºC to happen is not the same as stepping off a cliff edge,  it is a marker of note indicating the continuation of a risk laden trend toward ever greater climate extremes. If 2ºC becomes the temperature rise peak and subsequently humanity is able to stop the rise and reduce the amount of accumulated greenhouse gases, then a great deal will have been achieved. On the other hand if the 2ºC marker is just a milestone on an ever increasing temperature rise trend, then, as science informs us, extreme conditions will continue to increase and worsen. 

There are many variables influencing the trends we have set in motion. Together they represent a body of influences that must be overcome to stop and reverse the trends, to meet the challenge. For the remainder of this short essay I will turn my attention to some of those variables, the reasons why we could blow past 2ºC or by solving issues associated with the variables limit temperature increases.

Crises

Humanity is not good at anticipating crises and doing something to prevent or avoid them. We all do it from the little inconsequential to the large and serious. Directing our attentions elsewhere we go on hoping the inevitable will go away, that somehow the crisis will pass us by. I remember many years ago when we acquired this house, it was apparent the oil heating system and domestic hot water tank were obviously in need of attention, probably replacement. We did eliminate oil heating as the furnace was inefficient and oil was expensive, but we kept the oil heated hot water tank. Then some years later a single day before Christmas in the morning I opened the door to the basement and was met with a lot of steamy air. Alarm and questions raced into my brain, but it was not until I actually set foot on the basement floor and turned to see our hot water tank still trying to heat the water as cold water replaced the hot water exiting the tank through a rust hole. Steamy air was everywhere. Similarly on a much bigger scale, although the science and modelling has predicted the Covid-19 crisis would grow especially with the circulating variants swamping health care systems with too many patients, our provincial government hoped we would dodge the worst. We have not and now the system is scrambling to keep heads above the inevitable rise in numbers of infected and seriously ill patients. The crisis could have been avoided if the complacent attitudes at the political and domestic levels had paid attention not only to the rise in infected numbers of people, but also to the recommendations suggested as to the best way of preventing a worst case situation. Our response has been somewhat chaotic and confusing for all.

We have known that elevated levels of CO2 in the atmosphere causes a greenhouse situation where temperatures rise as heat from the sun is trapped in the earth’s atmosphere. Many environmental variables are involved, but not uniformly and so the climate responds inconsistently around the globe. The message has been quite clear for decades: Stop burning fossil fuels or inevitably suffer a climate crisis with very long term consequences for life on earth. Temperatures have risen on average for the earth by 1ºC and extreme conditions increase year by year. Still our response is lacklustre, uncoordinated and certainly inadequate as many believe or hope we will dodge the worst. Unfortunately this thinking is wishful as greenhouse gas amounts increase and the earth’s climate system responds with increased vigour. Already crises are mounting in the form of flooding, wildfires, droughts, excessive temperatures and ice melt causing sea levels to rise. We can see the crises coming and yet our responses are collectively inadequate.

Consensus

People have different perspectives arising from their environmental locations and experiences, from their ranges of education and beliefs, from their financial status, their habits and living standards and from their age groupings all influencing values, attitudes and commitments. We have seen just how difficult it is to achieve consensus with Covid-19 and vaccinations let alone the different political responses to it. Fortunately, over some time now the IPCC reports have contributed greatly to our understanding of the issues we face with climate change. Unfortunately there remain many dissenting viewpoints. Consensus is not a given even though the science is compelling. Consequently, despite increasing incidents of extreme weather, environmental consequences and rising costs associated with the damage caused and repairs required there remains a  reluctance to agree a globally common recipe to halt climate change, although the Paris Agreement was a significant step forward. Just because the scientific community has been able to prepare a series of published and therefore agreed reports does not, it seems, guarantee broad agreement about how to proceed across sectors and political boundaries. 

A random, chaotic response will not be sufficient. A unified political response is essential and yet the political realm is notoriously inconsistent, open to a great deal of lobbying, criticism, short-term instability and faced with difficult choices in policy, programmes and funding. Here in Canada a majority government recently sought by the Liberals was denied, while the election results demonstrated a split in thinking on significant issues, including climate change, across parties and the country. Over time political lurching back and forth around priority issues of a period are common in democratically elected states. While instability is therefore common at least political change is possible. In one party states not so and if the policy is in opposition to global consensus, then issues are bound to surface among states making consensual progress difficult.

Of course our societies consist of much more than the political realm. Management of and participation in global industrial, commercial, institutional, agricultural, finance, transportation, resource development, religion, educational objectives and programmes and a broad service sector all contribute to state dialogue and practices. Coordination and achieving consensus on priorities, urgencies, policies and programmes is a tall order. Yet, that is exactly what is required to turn this climate change juggernaut around.

Timing

Quite simply change, especially the types and scales required to stabilize our climate, takes time to achieve and at global and societal levels the prospects are daunting. Unfortunately we are rapidly running out of time to make those changes to meet the goals of the Paris agreement. Indeed I believe an earnest commitment is at least a decade late compounded yearly as emissions continue to rise pushing the GHGs even higher. By next March 2022 the CO2 level will rise to over 420ppm. Whereas there was a rush for the vaccine jab, to date there is no similar rush to curb emissions. If current emission rates continue, by the time I am 100 years old in 2051 the CO2 level will be nearing or will have passed through the 500ppm level and such a level is a sobering thought when it is recognized the ppm level is already too high.

Projects at all scales are notorious for running late and over-budget. This change project requiring major technological, value, political and funding adjustments is already running late, but the degree is unknown and that should be a worrying state of affairs. In practice the squeaky wheel should get the grease, but in this instance the squeak is just getting louder. In the end nature will have her say as many learned this year resulting from extreme weather events.

Technology

I have reserved space here to discuss technology, the values associated, the attitudes spawned and the practical implications, because it is at the core of both the plethora of issues and solutions. Oh so many years ago when humanity graduated from the hunter gatherer ways of living, the first real, but very tentative step was taken onto the technological treadmill. There was no going back. Humanity had discovered the relationship between need, design and use of tools. Fast forward to today when and where we are bathed in the results of technology. As Chicken Man might say: “It’s everywhere, it’s everywhere.”

Technological thinking has resulted in a huge variety of bigger and faster tools and complete dependency upon them. When input energy was discovered using animals, water, wind, heat (in various forms from different sources) and electricity (from different sources) the impacts were ramped up considerably. We were no longer reliant on just human power. In particular, the energy in fossil fuels and its versatility in other applications has been both a blessing and as we  have learned, a curse. The combustion of coal, oil and gas over many decades has resulted in the emission of excess levels of CO2 the principle gas causing climate change. This combination of technology and fossil fuels is where huge adjustment is required to stabilize our climate and avoid excessive temperature rise. To accomplish that we must first adjust our values, attitudes and ways of thinking about just exactly what we need, globally, to ensure a comfortable, safe and secure future for everyone.

There are so many ways to improve, it is difficult to know where to begin and be inclusive of all options. Following are a few suggestions:

In a very short time period, now that we have wasted time doing very little to cut emissions, shifting away from fossil fuels is absolutely essential. Alternative clean energy sources must be ramped up married to adjusted and new technologies. Opportunities to use the new arrangements and technologies must be available. For full participation the changed directions will need to be affordable.

The scale of technologies have grown to be enormous relying on a great deal of energy to function. Along with developing alternative energy sources downsizing will prove essential. Small will prove to be better in operation and in manufacturing processes.

Technology is a way of thinking and the machines and systems are the practical tools. These must be made to be more efficient in line with alternatives, opportunities and funding.

A large part of energy required to drive societies and global systems is employed in  transportation. These systems need to be made as efficient as possible.

Modern societies are wasteful. An enormous amount of various material types ends up in the “waste stream” never to be reused, plastics and metals being prime examples. The waste stream needs to be reduced by ensuring products are good quality, useful and convertible into renewed or new different products, ensuring second, third and so on new lives.

Transitioning into a new way of doing will not be inexpensive, but not transitioning will in the end be more destructive and costly. Now funding priorities need to be adjusted to reflect and support the transitions required to achieve new goals involving everyone. 

Settlements require a great deal of energy to function. In the past our designs have been largely inefficient. Redesigning settlement and ensuring new build is efficient and very livable in line with new reality adjustments has to become a planning and political priority. 

It is so obvious actually including it in this list seems unnecessary, but for many food is a real concern and with climate change happening the risks and uncertainties concerning food security are a reality. Ways and means to ensure food security must become a priority globally.

In the above examples and in the many more that could be noted the common variable is design. Humanity designs and past designs have lead us to where we are today. Future designs must enable a shift in our paths to support sustainable and secure futures.

Population

Our human population has exploded to numbers well beyond what this old earth can support. With education and support for all we must start to reduce those numbers rather than allowing them to just climb higher. Simply, resources will not be sufficient to support everyone at a high standard. Our expectations need to be revised and our numbers need to be reduced. Ten billion people on this earth with occurring and impending climate caused disasters will only compound issues and emergencies as we go forward.

Values, Attitudes and Beliefs (VABs)

Humanity must make significant adjustments to ensure climate change does not render large parts of the world uninhabitable. During the past 150 years a mindset of VABs has driven our “progress” leaving us in the looming dire circumstances about to be witnessed. During that time two prominent values have vied for dominance, individualism and community. The former has achieved prominence. A sub-value of acquisitiveness has also played a significant role.

Consistently missing in action during this period of enormous change, respect for all and the ecological planet earth has been minimized in favour of gain and wealth creation. Yes, many improvements have been achieved, but at costs resulting in environmental degradation and human inequities born out of a general lack of respect and belief in human deservedness and independence from the natural world. 

If the pandemic has taught us anything (historically a repeated lesson), it is this: in a global crisis everyone is involved and solutions must also involve everyone. The scale of climate change will be so much larger than the covid-19 pandemic and so resorting to everyone’s involvement with a revised set of VABs will be crucial to our success in stabilizing the climate to avoid catastrophic extremes. 

Conclusion

Our challenge lies in making the adjustments for transition from a degrading set of common practices that have lead us to the brink of widespread disaster. This is not over-stated as clearly the droughts, floods and temperature anomalies illustrate. We are headed in the wrong direction and must change our ways as outlined and more. Today we must ensure a livable planet for seven generations to follow.