Too Little Too Late

Too little too late is a double jeopardy, but that is how we are handling the climate change/global warming (CC/GW) file. Our response to the increasing frequency of rising temperatures, extreme weather events, rising sea levels, melting ice at both poles and in glaciers, compromised species health has been and continues to be lacklustre at best. We are adding fuel to the CC/GW fire, then standing back and watching it all unfold as predicted. For all the talk and promises made, our efforts are AWOL. We seem to be paralyzed from acting without having a clear and present crisis to prevent or to clean up the debris after it has happened. At all levels we are on the bandwagon for the ride and in my mind there is no doubt, we are screwed, self-inflicted, that’s for certain.

Humanity has known about the effects of inflated CO2 levels in our atmosphere for many decades, certainly long enough to do something about it. On my bookshelf three books refer to CC/GW: “Our Common Future: The World Commission on Environment and Development”, 1987; “Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report”, 1990; and “Beyond the Limits: Global Collapse or a Sustainable Future”,1992. International conferences have been held, words spoken and commitments made, but little accomplished in the form of deep practical preventive solutions. Each political entity is addressing CC/GW differently and thus insufficient coordinated global effort occurs. Indeed, some jurisdictions seem to quite deliberately fan the flames of CC/GW in their states of interest conflict. The Paris accord seems destined to be one more unfulfilled agreement. CO2 concentrations continue to rise relatively rapidly compared to other warming events in earth’s history, now reaching levels and causing conditions not present on earth for a very long time, millions of years in fact.

Reading the contents page of The Greenpeace Report indicates superficially what was known in the late 1980’s and begs the question: Why have we not achieved more in preventing CC/GW? Following is a list of the Report’s chapter headings:

Science

  1. The Nature of the Greenhouse Threat

  2. The Science of Climate-Modelling and a Perspective on the Global-Warming Debate

  3. Biogeochemical Feedbacks in the Earth System

  4. Halting Global Warming

Impacts

  1. The Effects of Global Warming

  2. Lessons From Climates of the Past

  3. The Implications for Health

Policy Responses

  1. Policy Responses to Global Warming

  2. The Costs of Cutting - or not Cutting - Greenhouse-gas Emissions

  3. The Role of Energy Efficiency

  4. Renewable Energy: Recent Commercial Performance in the USA as an Index of Future Prospects

  5. Motor Vehicles and Global Warming

  6. Nuclear Power and Global Warming

  7. The Challenge of Choices: Technology Options for the Swedish Electricity Sector

  8. Tropical Forests

  9. Agricultural Contributions to Global Warming

  10. Third World Countries in the Policy Response to Global Climate Change

  11. Managing the Global House: Redefining Economics in a Greenhouse World

  12. Global Warming: A Greenpeace View.

It is an instructive book and the frustration and maybe tragedy of its insights in 1990 are that in 2020 we seem to be not much further ahead in dealing with the issues although much more is understood about the inevitable broad ranging impacts. Indeed, the urgency for action encouraged in the other two books suggests, when present conditions are considered, in important areas we have fallen behind where we should now be in our efforts to not only solve the CC/GW issues,  but all other issues associated with excessive growth and poor waste management. If Covid-19 has taught us anything, it is this: we are not invulnerable; adapting to dramatically new circumstances is a challenge; and strongly suggests, in our drive to cut costs, we are not acting adequately to prepare for potential consequences of past development and growth choices as they will inevitably play out over the coming decades. 

There are checks and balances in complex systems, but there are also limits going beyond can cause severe degradation to those systems. The rock we live on, earth, is a messy place. We live in a complex world and understanding the nuances has been elusive with much still to learn. To be able to identify a single point of change, the crossing of a limit, in earth systems complexity leading to subsequent greater change is highly problematic. So, are we too late to do anything about the consequences of CO2 concentrations? In this matter history is instructive and our scientific communities have discovered a great deal about the cause of past conditions on earth. We seem to be at a threshold, not a tipping point, arriving there driven by past and now current choices. If we have arrived at a set of conditions locking us into an inevitable decline in climate conditions, then yes we are late and can only hope to lessen the consequences from the worst extremes. If the threshold remains distant, then yes there is time to make the necessary adjustments. The problem, as I see it, is neither scenario is particularly relevant as humanity seems to be only concerned about inertial growth. The goal is more, not less, of the same and it is the same which has got us to or almost to the threshold and a large bucket of issues.

CO2 levels hover around 415ppm as I write this in July 2020. A rising trend continues year over year. Even in this Covid year the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) continues to climb. Just as our productive systems continue to expand so too CO2 concentrations go up. We are not slowing down or making adjustments to reduce CO2 emissions anywhere near what is required. Beyond just seeing CO2 concentrations rise, there is the condition of latency involving a time lag between before and the consequence later. So, the changing conditions of ten to twenty years ago have worked through the earth systems and we are now seeing the consequences where CO2 capping and reduction targets are not being realized. Equally temperature rising on land and in the seas goes on with, so far, each decadal period hotter than the previous one. 

We have been witnessing dramatic and extreme weather conditions around the world with higher temperatures, stronger storms, more flooding, more droughts, ice melt and of course the sea levels rise. All this is happening and the global temperature change since the industrial revolution is only now clearing 1ºC and beginning to approach 1.5ºC the lower goal agreed in Paris. Over the next ten years the extreme events will become more extreme and frequent. As a global community we can make adjustments to the new conditions. What we are not doing is changing our ways to prevent further extreme conditions from materializing. We live on a global Titanic. Turning away from our present course takes time, will require huge amounts of investment and to get it done solid leadership requiring our endorsement and contributing support. Unfortunately we are not all working on the same page. So, I believe time has run out to limit a temperature increase at 1.5ºC and with a plethora of consequences ensuing the 2ºC limit is in grave jeopardy. Some predict the trajectory will take temperatures significantly beyond the 2ºC threshold. With some areas of the globe already experiencing temperatures above 40ºC, even breaching 50ºC, habitat will be lost and migration will be rampant. Quite simply we are not making enough changes quickly. The motivation of crises to change will occur, but also the climate migration phenomenon will multiply. Forced change will be inevitable.

We live in an economic world and so, our response to CC/GW to change our ways must involve economic penalties and safeguards. We cannot afford, literally, to cherry pick the easy fruits of denial when the trends so clearly show troubles brewed and brewing. Our values, attitudes and beliefs need an overhaul with respect and “do no harm” leading the charge. While technologies will be part of the solutions mix, they will not be the panacea. Finally our habits of growth, waste and population increases need to be addressed. More of what we have done in the past will only make our future more difficult. As Covid-19 has shown, we are all in this together and unless we get it together the future will be a bleak one, indeed.