Unlimited Growth in a Finite World

The notion of growth has been indelibly ingrained into the very essence of our thinking and it is a problem. The most obvious issue involves growth in a finite world and while clearly an important conundrum to solve it is only a start point. Indeed, human spawned growth issues are comprehensively ubiquitous across societies and environments. Nowhere and no one is exempt from its influence and yet we do not fully understand what growth is all about and accordingly its impacts.

So, what is this thing called growth? Where, when and how does it occur? Maybe most important, why does it happen and if I am correct to say it is a problem, then what are the problems with growth?

The concept of growth is not a mystery requiring a sleuthed investigation. We experience it personally and in one form or another it is all around us. Essentially growth involves expansion, but its nuance of application has come to mean much more. In short, the subtle variations in meaning are influenced by the circumstances considered and that involves the where, when and how of it.

In so many different ways growth is happening all around us and what is so amazing about it all is the interconnectedness and dependency of it, not always immediately recognizable, but by following a thread relationships become apparent. In this essay I will set out some of the more important contextual traits of growth as I see it.

Growth always occurs with expenditure of and influence on five elements: energy, space, time, resource use and with affect upon the ‘other’. Growth involves simultaneously expansion and contraction. Growth is either or both human induced and natural (I make the distinction because of the great part humanity has played influencing global environments). Human induced growth is driven and managed by surrogates principally, but not exclusively, on behalf of humanity. Growth occurs at varying rates obviously depending upon circumstances. Balance is constantly being adjusted as growth occurs. The scale of growth is significantly impactful. Depending upon ones perspective affected by values, attitudes, beliefs and experiences, growth will have a notion of quality associated with it. There are limits to growth.

Briefly it will be useful to unpack these contextual traits of growth.

Growth always occurs with expenditure of and influence on four elements: energy, space, time and with affect upon the ‘other’. Whatever the form of growth, energy, space, time and affect are involved. The growth process is cyclical. A seed is sewn with energy expenditure and growth occurs occupying space in a time frame with impact upon the surroundings of its presence. This growth process is constantly being repeated. A pregnancy begins as also a seedling tree takes root. Both child and tree grow with available and usable energy nutrients occupying space for a time while influencing in a plethora of ways all they come in contact with. Our human population now exceeds seven billion people. The impact of the growth in our numbers has been and continues to be enormous.

Growth involves simultaneously expansion and contraction. In simple terms, growth is represented by a two sided coin involving either expansion or contraction. Expansive growth occurs in a variety of forms involving purpose, size, physical presence, process, knowledge, awareness and association. Most growth occurs in a symbiotic manner on the back of other growth. However, as growth occurs expansively the influence of it can and will cause contraction or decline in other respects. As a forest grows only shade tolerant species survive and flourish eliminating, for example, what used to be a grassland. As human society has flourished and expanded around the globe, many forms of ‘natural’ environment have declined including wetlands and woodlands replaced by settlement and agriculture.

Growth is either or both human induced and natural. Humanity’s presence and influence in the world, now numbering over 7 billion people, has expanded with our discovery, creativity and decisions concerning societal organization and the technological tools employed. Natural growth, where we allow it to happen, occurs cyclically, seasonally and symbiotically (Maybe ecologically is the better word.) in a drive to survive and flourish in various forms of environmental configuration.

Human induced growth is driven and managed by surrogates principally, but not exclusively, on behalf of humanity. A key and distinguishing realization by humanity early in our development was the recognition of the importance of substitute contributions on behalf of others in a community. As societies grew and prospered so complexity increased. Individuals were no longer able to perform all tasks required. Indeed, some tasks became very specialized excluding contributions by the general public. Today is many thousands of years more complex and surrogates are a necessity to an extent they are indispensable in all aspects of societal growth and management. Mostly their efforts are intended to benefit humanity although some surrogate contributions perform a dual role by also supporting environmental health. Unfortunately not all results are beneficial particularly because the intent, form and manner of growth is remote from the vast majority of people and environments. Basically it is a hidden process until a physical presence can be recognized and then only the physical is seen not the process.

Growth occurs at varying rates obviously depending upon circumstances. Many variables contribute to the reasons for growth and the rate of its occurrence in societies and the environment. Following, some of the more influential variables are discussed, variables pertaining to the ‘why’ of growth.

1.To satisfy a need/necessity

Before any other growth variable kicks in there is a need to throw off the vestiges of infancy by embarking on a path to maturity. By reaching a mature state both the life cycle can be completed with infancy starting again and in maturity the life form can grow in stature and influence. All life grows through stages, some growth happening quickly and frequently while other life grows slowly over a much longer period before maturity is reached. So, the need and rate of growth ultimately involves survival through the cycles of a life entity. Without growth at an advantageous rate specific to the life form, the timing of the stages of growth can deviate from normal and risk failure. And of course this is the same for enterprise in our human created world.

2.Taking advantage of an opportunity/ niche

Growth takes advantage of opportunities and niches to flourish. Consider a seedling tree in a crowded woodlot where the canopy has filled in, where there is no more room for another tree to emerge into the sunlight. The seedling grows slowly and together with other young trees, soon forms the undergrowth. Eventually a branch of another big tree dies or a whole tree and suddenly a gap in the canopy opens. The young trees best placed to take advantage of the opening then grow rapidly to fill the gap by reaching for sunlight. This happens throughout the natural world. It also happens in human society where some activity grows to fill a gap where an activity failed or an opportunity is recognized and growth occurs in pursuit of the opportunity. To be successful, to get there before the competition, focused effort is necessary whether as a tree or a business enterprise.

3.In the Pursuit of Gain

With growth various types of gain can occur: in size, knowledge, influence, wealth, power, stature, and so on. The type of gain, the circumstances of the situation and the innate will to achieve gain will have a big influence upon the rate of its occurrence. Once the canopy is opened up the young tree will grow rapidly to gain a position in the canopy. The over-riding purpose of business is making profit and the desired rate of the increase will influence the rate of gain other things being equal.

4.Market Demand

The demands of the market are huge and constantly changing. Growth can and does occur in response to the varied demands the market initiates. The greater and more important the demand the faster the rate of growth to satisfy the demand. Demand however is highly influenced in a number of ways. Marketing and consumer satisfaction lies at the heart of it all. In effect through marketing, demand is issued for demand for the supply of goods and services. Unpacking this we begin to recognize the producers are demanding of the consumers to demand the supplies the producers create. It is cyclical and the consumer will participate willingly so long as they have a good quality experience, the ‘feel good’ factor, for their efforts. The consumer response I suggest is relatively straight forward, while the producers must jump through hoops and loops in their demands for reciprocal demand from those consumers. Today with data recovery the methodologies have become quite sophisticated while at the same time remaining subtle. The producer can’t just go to a consumer and demand they demand the product or service on offer. Through very clever data recovery and marketing programmes, in effect the producers do exactly what they cannot do upfront. So, with marketing on steroids the producers dress up their demands of consumers to convince them they need what they want, two very different concepts. Consumers willingly play along as their acquisitive tendencies are massaged with the stick being brandished in the form of carrots. In the end consumer satisfaction, the hook, is the indispensable key to marketing and successful demand for demand.

5.Vision

An idea a vision of something in a future time and space where and when the something needs to grow to fulfill the vision drives decision-making and a growth rate according to the importance of the vision. Although ideas may start out as vague in substance and detail, as time proceeds and growth occurs the blanks are filled in and a clearer path is identified allowing for more rapid growth.

6.Resource availability

Growth requires various resource inputs from human resources to technologies and finance and from the natural world. The availability of these resources will have an impact on the growth rate.

7.Political

Political policy and programmes can influence growth and the rate of it. This is a particularly volatile influence as continuity with circumstances and those involved is not guaranteed. Regardless of the influence, the political posturing and decision-making is notoriously varied and therefore directed toward different outcomes. On the other hand where and when stability in the political sphere is present, much support for desired results can occur and accordingly growth can rapidly evolve.

8.Regulatory

Rules and regulations play a big part in the rate of growth by influencing procedure and requirements. For example health and safety requirements may cause delays to growth if the drivers of growth do not meet standards. Alternatively, where and when regulations are relaxed the resulting lack of guide posts can inject a sense of freedom to go for it with abandon.

9. Urgency

As a result of competition and chasing market share, keeping up is a challenge. In a lively and competitive situation players often need to grow to maintain or increase their share of market demands in order to survive. Growth will also occur rapidly where an urgent situation is identified. A requirement for expanded health care will inevitably take up much of the oxygen in the room as budgets and other resources are directed toward the urgent health care situation.

10.Discovery science and technology, R&D

Active research and development can and will discover new ways and products. Growth will occur where the findings are viable and successfully point in a new direction. This is a key element of growth as it involves the notion of technical possibility. Obviously with theoretical and applied design issues a damper on the growth rate will emerge.

11.Legacy infrastructure

Growth inevitably requires an adequate infrastructure and this involves the legacy of investment by previous decision-makers.

Balance in growth is quite fluid.

As growth occurs it will affect whatever balance existed by skewing trends in another direction. In reality growth and decline occur constantly making balance quite fluid. In fact balance probably does not exist as change is constant and depends on the time period considered or observed.

Growth inevitably leads to scale adjustment.

Growth results in altered scale and as growth and decline constantly occur scales of initiatives are adjusted. As seed dispersal occurs into the meadow, as germination occurs and in years as the woodlot grows its scale will transform the landscape.

There are qualities associated with growth depending on the results and the perspective of the assessor. A new highway cutting through a residential area will be great for commuters, but not those displaced.

Growth limits inevitably occur.

In a finite world growth inevitably hits a ceiling of limits. Above some, hopefully most of the traits of growth were indicated illustrating its complexity. In a finite world not everything is the same and so limits will be reached at different times depending upon the demand and use made of the resources available in specific locations. Water in some parts of our world is already a scarce essential. As the demand for food increases and as settlements expand the pressure on good agricultural land and soils increases. Life exists within a range of variables, some forms in very limited environmental conditions while other forms have the luxury of a much wider set of environmental variables in which to flourish. With the changes humanity has caused to occur species requiring a limited range are certainly at risk of dying off and indeed species loss has become a huge existential reality. So limitations in environmental and ecological change are significant and indeed represent limits if breached resulting in toxic conditions for some life forms. Climate change is one of the specific variables currently happening involving temperature shifts, rainfall, drought, flooding, wild fires and storm surge. Then too there is plastic waste in landfills and more significantly in lakes and the seas. Marine life is suffering. In the past the environmental and ocean sinks were sufficient for absorbing humanity’s waste stream, a small proportion of the amount currently being chucked. Now the waste stream has become a raging river and the sinks are being overwhelmed. Growth is reaching absorption limits.

Consequences of Growth

Growth is a complicated phenomenon, but clearly there are both upsides and downsides to its occurrence. More jobs and a strong economy, as political entities would have it, represents only a portion of the possible consequences we should be mindful of in this fast paced digital era. Yes, we gain benefits from growth, but there are also costs ignored at our peril. Now, rather than try to hit all the consequential buttons, I have selected some for closer scrutiny, the ones appearing to be most relevant in this period of change. Here is my list of ten specific and significant positive and negative consequences. I must also say our values, attitudes and beliefs have an important role in how all the consequences play out and on our assessment of them.

Positive

Stronger economy - with more economic activity of the right kinds, an economy should grow in size, in resilience and robustness increasing general wealth for all.

More jobs - in the growth economy there is more economic activity and therefore there are more jobs needing to be done and people to do them.
Better health care - one of the more important positive results involves a better standard and more available health care.
R&D, science and technology generally encouraged with benefits in knowledge and doing.
More choice and opportunity, the good life - inevitably and assuming people can take advantage of the results of growth, the standard of living should rise.

Negative

Increased degrading environmental impact, increased waste, resource depletion, more energy required - limits confronting over-growth are breached resulting in degrading consequences.

More remote, more anxiety - hands-on control diminished and greater complexity in a vast economic system leads to negative spirals of reduced involvement and awareness.
Risks heightened, collapse ensues - as growth breaches limits complex systems are threatened.
Extremes intensify, balance skewed - without balance stable systems are jeopardized.
More systemic complexity and confusion, scale up and dis-economies, congestion, increased rules and regulations - a catch-all of degrading consequences.

Conclusions

Growth has been good for humanity as in growth a collection of welcome dividends have been developed including increases in wealth, jobs, choice, technological innovations, knowledge, mobility, health care, general enhancements and much more. There is a saying, a warning or cautionary observation my mother used to say to me from time to time: “Too much of a good thing can become a very bad thing” and “everything in moderation.” So, yes humanity has achieved much, but costs have also occurred and they are becoming quite serious involving water, species loss, climate change, dramatic environmental and ecological change and plastic waste. We risk serious degradation by ignoring those consequences of growth. Heads in the sand provide no solution. Indeed, heads in the sand, in effect denial by willful ignorance, will simply allow the issues, the costs, to worsen dramatically. I apologize for pulling another saying from my mother’s bucket of sayings: “There is no use in crying over spilt milk” which is to say once the crises happen there is nothing to be done except clean up and try to do better next time. Here there is a difference as spilt milk is unanticipated whereas we know many of the likely consequences of too much growth. Now humanity is in the throws of watching the milk spill. The crises are upon us and occurring because growth has thrown much out of balance by plunging our world into a collection of extremes with incredibly serious consequences. Yes, growth is good, but not at the expense of livability and make no mistake for much of humanity, many species and the environment this is the issue we face. After the crises nothing will be the same as before.

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