Looming Lemmings: Change is Afoot
I write thinking maybe I can convince a few people, maybe some in influential situations, to do the right thing and begin cutting back significantly on their use of fossil fuels. I have little real hope my words will be successful because an insufficient number of prolonged and catastrophic crises occur. Reason is a woefully inadequate prod for change by itself. People seem to require substance, a real slap in the face for example, to make them sit up and take notice. We have simply come too far with development of our current form of the ‘good life’. Very few are willing, voluntarily, to give those accomplishments up and will only do so if forced or if a better alternative is available. So far, governments at all levels have given lip service to the need for change, but not much else and the public has yet to acknowledge there is a real set of problems requiring attention. I realize such statements are overly generalized, but look around and obviously substantial change away from fossil fuels is so far just minimal. Further our CO2 emissions continue to climb at an increasing rate.
There are too many signs of disregard and neglect out in the wider world to be complacent, as our attitudes suggest our current mindset, suggesting humanity will not make the necessary changes until it is too late, and maybe we are already too late if lag time of the influence of a continually rising level of CO2 is taken into account. CO2 induced changes in our environments are occurring comprehensively around the globe and yet our responses are lacklustre at best. The urgency of our situation in a harmed environment is bordering on lunacy. There is one prediction I am very confident about making: humanity will eventually be forced to change, but will only do so kicking and screaming in objection. Currently we are looking to find the most convenient cliff from which to jump into an abyss of unknowns. Change is afoot and it is leading us into the very scary realm of disasters.
If you are not convinced already our historical choices and actions caused the current and increasing number of extreme events, consider the following examples of degrading environmental realities confirmed in reputable and peer reviewed sources in IPCC reports, in journals, on the internet and in reviews in the media:
Water Levels & Flooding - quite simply these are increasing. The World Meteorological Organization has calculated sea level rise of 3mm / year since 1993 and since 1870 the rise has amounted to 200mm (7.8 inches). With increasing Arctic, Antarctic and glacial melt those numbers are sure to rise more threatening coastal areas around the globe.
Temperatures - on the rise on land and in seas around the globe, although there is variability in locations. Overall, temperatures have risen by about 1ºC averaged for earth, but will increase more as the ocean sink radiates heat into the atmosphere. Search for global temperatures and a great pile of information can be considered.
Wildfires - in recent years the frequency and severity of these uncontrollable fire events seem to be increasing around the globe including in B.C., California, Australia, Brazil, Siberia and other locations. All this burning of course adds more CO2 emissions.
Ice Melt - is occurring at an increasing rate in the Arctic, on Greenland, in the Antarctic and in glacial systems at high altitudes. Less ice will result in rising water levels, more moisture in the atmosphere and less moderation of global temperatures.
Drought - occurring in multiple vulnerable locations over years around the globe. With drought of course fresh water supplies become very limited with significant impacts upon agriculture and settlements.
Coral Dieback - is occurring, a worrying phenomenon as coral is recognized as a significant supporter or sea life, diversity and food systems.
Hurricanes / Cyclones / Tornadoes - while frequencies vary from year to year, the event intensities are increasing with higher wind speeds and larger amounts of moisture causing more damage.
Permafrost - is melting resulting in loss of ground stability and the release of methane a potent green house gas.
GHGs, CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide - are now steadily increasing year over year. While the numbers seem small at first glance when the historical records are considered the association of the current levels with past climate disruption and conditions is apparent. The current levels for CO2 surpassing the 415ppm threshold are higher than at any time in human history.
Altogether, the information now available concerning CO2 emissions and their links to the above noted consequences suggests a worrying future for the decades and millennia to follow. This will not be a short-term event and will not develop well for us and our environments.
Humanity is good at cherry picking. We tend to focus on what is desirable and ignore the rest. This tendency speaks to a pathological inconsistency. We are very grateful and willing to accept the science improving our lot in life from health care to food security to technological developments of one form or another and so on. We question the findings of science when those findings hi-light errors in our judgements, practices and the resulting consequences if and when the findings suggest we should be acting differently to avoid damaging results. We can’t have it both ways. Our policies and regulations need to reflect more accurately the findings of science, not the wishful thinking of avarice and the ignorance of hubris.