Our Future is Mired in Our Past: Part One

Think of a river. There is a beginning, a middle (the longest section), and an end. It is a river of many parts starting in an upland bog amidst rolling hills, a coniferous forest blanketing the land as far as the eye can see. Invisible to the eye from a distance hiding in the landscape are the features, depressions, hillocks, small clearings, a beaver lodge, deer skirting along the edge of the bog, a profusion of upland birds keeping an eye on the horizon for silent raptors, the grasses, the natural cover and home for so much life it astounds. Consider the river to be representative of humanity’s journey and accomplishments, the creation of civilization, societies, cultures and technologies. It has been a long journey for humanity and yet, we remain somewhere in the middle section of the river representing our accomplishments some way from the beginning, but never reaching the end.

Now imagine the river in a constantly changing landscape so that neither the landscape nor the river running through are anchored. In effect, both are quite fluid and apart with the river seemingly floating through, sometimes above, sometimes below the ever-changing landscape. Still, the river is highly influenced by this ephemeral landscape the root cause of the river’s twists and turns, the rapids and falls, the calms and eddies, its degree of clarity and its taste. As the landscape morphs into and through a myriad of formations so the river adapts with altered courses and flow rates. Altogether it is a phenomenon in the grip of transitions.

This is humanity’s river where the closest past landscapes remain visible, about which memories are strong, where existing currents are a challenge and where the future course is anticipated but, ultimately uncertain. In this river humanity clings to the memories and experiences gained in order to navigate beyond. Looking back, now the mists grow to pull a veil over those memories and experiences as if to render the scene out of focus. The life-line is in jeopardy and threatened with severance. Adaptable, resourceful and with the strength of conviction and accomplishment humanity navigates forward always on the lookout for deadfalls and large boulders, all the time gaining in confidence. Now mist rises ahead, the river has widened and there is a calmness in the steady flow. Now, what is that noise? What is that roaring thunder? We are being carried faster and faster. One can see it is so as the shoreline rapidly changes with past formations replaced by new. Enveloped in the mist where has the shore gone? And then a realization, none of the past has prepared us for this fall and beyond.

Our future, the future we discern is anticipated and derived from our past. It is a strong glue the legacy we absorb and so too for the one we pass on. It will not be easy to break apart or insert a new and altered vision. We must try to reach shore, to rest, to reconsider and consider our options and look for opportunities. The unexpected falls are clearly a serious risk.

In the remainder of this essay I want to explore how our past has lead to a widespread and serious misplaced complacency about our future. This involves profound and existential issues of our time.

It will appear, at first glance, the main causes I describe leading to many major current issues are inadequate as defendable explanations. Yet, in my opinion they are the drivers, enablers and causes of the issues we are witnessing piling up around us. Collectively they have wielded great influence and continue to direct our thinking despite the growing body of information suggesting an urgent need for an alternate paradigm. Now and this has been true for some time, decades in fact, we need to think outside our past ideas and designed solutions as together they have combined creating problems across the board involving: sea levels and storm surge, a major threat to coastal areas; climate warming and extreme climate events including hurricanes, drought and flood; wildfires; extreme temperatures above 40ºC; threats to species on land and in the seas from rising temperatures and habitat loss; threats to food security; and a loss of polar ice among others.

Now I will review some of the global and societal conditions driving the above issues into existence.

Habit involves repeated practices and actions often without much thought. They are difficult to break or change as they are born from repeated effectiveness maybe out of necessity and certainly involving what seems to work best and is most comfortable. Why change if something works? Just keep on doing the same thing as after a while the repeated action is easy if not mindless. Sometimes these habits allow us to be otherwise occupied, multi-tasking.

Individuals certainly develop habits, but so do societies and cultures. Indeed, in so many ways we are creatures of habit and make no mistake, we all develop them. A favourite chair, sleeping on the same side of your bed, the same route to work at the same time, a repeated meal with coffee in the morning, checking email, all and so much more done by an individual. Interestingly and a common trait of habit is the influence of a perceived effective past as guidance with purpose leading toward more habitual design and practice.

I have raised this notion of habit to point out it is a repeated manifestation of perceived successful past thinking and action and to suggest habit is one of the legacy glues, an action we are reluctant to change or give up, something we are willingly mired in.

I am not suggesting change is absent. On the contrary, it is a constant occurrence, but the rate of change is crucial in the habit forming process and on the breadth of acceptance and continuity. When and where change is rapid and sustained grounded habit may be inappropriate and rejected as an option. Winging it may be the better choice. Breaking established habits involves change, usually occurring on the outside of one’s comfort zone and demands adjustment. In other words, there is a reason to change. Crisis is an obvious example and assuming openness to and recognition of the change, dramatic or not, and the implications, motivation to change habit will probably occur. Recently for those affected by flooding along the Ottawa, St. Lawrence and St John Rivers, normal everyday activities, the habits, were abandoned, some people forced to leave homes, some trying to protect housing, others required to detour around the flooded areas. Wildfire situations cause similar disruptions to habit as would a big snowstorm, a power outage or an emergency for a pet requiring a visit to the veterinarian. There are many possible habit disrupters, but once the situation calms habit can be re-instated.

Done by many for extended periods of time and the habits become cultural across a population. Protocols in business, industry, politics, science, religion, education and so on are methodological maybe to the extent of becoming legal regulation. In summary, it is not a stretch to say, society’s functional habits are wrapped up in systems. To hammer the point a little more, societies are composed of systems, ubiquitous in every walk of life, making habit functionally pervasive and dominant. A transportation system is a good example. We have built infrastructure and have organized schedules, formal for public transportation and informal as in rush hours and a variety of other activities such as mass exodus of weekend travel out of town. Indeed, systems are designed to be habit forming. Doesn’t matter the size or the purpose, a function or set of functions are repeatedly performed and these systems are all linked up. A transportation system is designed to service the mobility requirements of settlement and beyond by providing the means of access, including for commerce, education, employment, recreation and everything else. The transportation system is habitual and so the systems tied to it likewise are engaged in habit. The transportation systems functioning today are the result of decision choices and designs made in the past based upon assessments of past, present and future requirements in conjunction with available capacities and potential problems. For all systems, the decisions and designs made today will impact the form and function of tomorrow’s systems and so on it goes.

The multi-faceted energy system is another significant example of a system steeped in habitual activity, design and function. Indeed, the energy system enables society’s systems collectively to function and to do so according to both human and technological habit. Time systems are a perfect example whereby electricity runs time systems used to regulate our days in habitual chunks. The energy system in total is designed to respond to the peaks and troughs of demand on a daily cyclical and habitual basis.

The huge past investment in developing the energy infrastructure has guaranteed an energy system for decades to come, but at what cost. Is it the right one? The legacy of decisions made in our past have consequences in the present and future. We have become extremely dependent upon our energy systems. However, elements of the system contribute significantly to the very real issues of our time. In effect we are locked in and the only real and significant alternatives in the short-term are, it would seem, curtailed use and improved efficiencies.

Growth is also a form of habit to the extent our financial systems depend upon growth to balance the books and show profit. Housing is just one example where growth starts in the sector supplies increasing demands while investment expectations anticipates the growth in property values. The more there is growth the demands for building materials increases, job numbers increase and we are full circle back to increasing demands for more housing. Growth finances loans and speculation and as long as it continues and in my life-time with a few exceptions it has been rising, the system will function in accord with past trends. Even the periodic bubbles and corrections seem to give way to more growth and with populations rising along with societal wealth the trends continue upward.

Of course with more growth there is also more demand for resources to support the growth. In the 70’s warnings about limits were written about. It seems to be happening again, this time from the UN Environment Resource Panel. Getting off the habitual growth merry-go-round will not be easy.

Clearly growth has both positive and negative consequences. Unfortunately, humanity has welcomed growth leading to more wealth, a greater variety of products it seems in all sectors of society, better health care, more mobility and generally an increased sense of accomplishment concerning achievement of the good life, but simultaneously there have been substantial costs and these too are growing in quantity and in marked contrast to our achievements. The global environment seems to be most effected with a growing list of serious issues including: climate change, environmental degradation and species loss. In our global societies old issues prevail and new ones regularly emerge including poverty and the wealth divide, congestion causing inefficiencies, existing and emerging health concerns, threats to our food and water systems and migration caused by political conflicts and environmental events such as hurricanes, flooding and drought to name a few.

Along with the promises and policies designed to achieve more growth rides the notion of scale. “Bigger is better” and “economies of scale” are well known phrases extolling the virtues of growth and justifying its occurrence. Indeed there is a good deal of support for the economies to be gained and efficiencies to be realized. But, at what point do other considerations make more sense and what about the unknowns hidden from public view in gargantuan? Our past suggests a continuation in the same relentless growth regardless of the consequences.

Human progress has not happened in a vacuum. Beginning with primitive tools and the realization they could be created, humanity has employed science, technology and the machine to forge futures. More recently, in the past 150 years, and on a whole different scale industry and globalism has been added to the mix. At first it was human labour and now, while humanity is still actively involved, the whole computer and digital thing has transformed how we do what we do. Artificial intelligence will in the coming years and decades play an increasingly important part. So, science and discovery has been at the forefront enabling, along with will and wealth, all the rest to occur. Indeed, today and for all the tomorrows the legacies and the new discoveries will continue to be the impetus for the trends previously started, all-be-it the issues clearly are changing. Recognizing the problems and doing something to prevent or mitigate them has not been humanity’s strong suit. It seems whenever change threatens industrial self-interest, denial of problems arises. Unfortunately this trend will also continue as there are other fundamental drivers in play.

One of those elements of long standing is what I refer to as surrogate power. Again a very long time ago humanity realized the individual could not do everything required. Further, it also became evident more could be accomplished with more hands doing the work. When humanity realized different jobs could be worked on at the same time, well that is when the concept of a substitute or surrogate took off. Responsibility to do a job was given to a surrogate. As societies formed and grew the surrogate began to dominate and the trend has continued to the present and will continue well into the future. Indeed, the surrogate manages society on behalf of the citizen body who are also surrogates working on behalf of society. But, there is no equity in the surrogate system as some are indeed much more powerful or command greater respect and honour.

Over the past 200 years, give or take a few, a trend apparently around the world has been more and more toward the individual. Obviously generalizing and saying this occurs across the board for everyone in all sectors and locations is an over-statement. Yet, it has and is happening. The extended family and community has downsized for various reasons and these trends will continue carrying the legacy forward into the decades to come. What are the reasons and why does it matter?

It matters because humans cannot exist in isolation for extended periods of time. Humanity is gregarious, quite sensual in communication and performs better with regular face to face encounters in smaller groupings. In isolation humanity has little choice but to focus more on the ego with community, others and sharing as foreign concepts. I suggest as individuals focused on self this thinking condition translates into groups, businesses, institutions and so on working in isolation and in competition in effect reinforcing the need to be isolationist. The old outdated notion of “survival of the fittest” somehow survives when a more consistent notion in line with human needs, “mutual aid,” should dominate our thinking. The trend toward isolation and thinking about and for the individual has been increased by technology and technology by itself cannot provide the essential relations humanity requires.

So, extended has been giving way to nuclear for some time. What are the reasons? I believe there are three major reasons operating in a cyclical fashion as in a spiral loop, each reason feeding off the one before. The three reasons I have identified are drivers, designs and responses. This troika of reasons is really huge in that they permeate society, a much bigger over-all subject than I can discuss here, but I will at least try to introduce the ideas in Part Two.

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